How climate change will shape our future

Key points from expert talk

• Climate change is a political challenge, not a scientific one. Governments have understood the causes and solutions for decades, yet global carbon emissions have continued to rise, with around half of all historical CO₂ emissions released since 1990.
• Carbon dioxide causes long-lasting warming. Because CO₂ remains in the atmosphere for centuries to millennia, every additional emission contributes to long-term climate change, meaning global warming will only stop when net carbon dioxide emissions reach zero.
• Phasing out fossil fuels is essential but highly challenging. Fossil fuels underpin modern economies, powering transport, industry and the production of fertilisers and plastics, making the transition both urgent and difficult.
• Climate impacts are already being felt. Even at around 1.3–1.5°C of warming, climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of floods, droughts, heatwaves and other extreme weather events, with growing impacts on food production, infrastructure and communities.
• Current emissions trajectories are incompatible with international climate goals. Existing national commitments are projected to lead to around 3°C of global warming this century, while limiting warming to 2°C would require rapid, sustained reductions in global emissions.
• Higher levels of warming could trigger irreversible global changes. Warming beyond 2°C substantially increases the risk of crossing major climate tipping points, including ice-sheet collapse, rainforest loss and large-scale disruption of ocean circulation.
• Societies remain poorly prepared for climate impacts. Most public spending continues to focus on disaster recovery rather than preparedness, while growing climate risks are likely to make some homes and communities increasingly difficult to insure and protect.
• The future depends on political choices made today. The technologies and knowledge needed to reduce emissions already exist, but avoiding the worst climate impacts depends on governments, businesses and societies choosing to rapidly phase out greenhouse gas emissions and invest in adaptation.