Trade in an unstable future
Hillmarè Schulze
BERL
Hillmarè is the owner and Chief Economist at BERL, with over 30 years’ experience across New Zealand, the Pacific, and Africa.
She has advised the World Bank, governments, Māori-owned and private entities, bringing deep expertise in trade, sector dynamics, and translating complex, cross-cultural economic issues into practical strategy for diverse industries and policy environments globally.
Key points from expert talk
- Trade policy must adapt to a more unstable world. New Zealand’s long-standing assumption of an increasingly stable and integrated global economy no longer holds, requiring trade policy to prioritise resilience alongside openness.
- New Zealand is especially vulnerable to global disruptions. As a small, geographically isolated economy that relies heavily on shipping, imported energy and a narrow export base, New Zealand is highly exposed to geopolitical, energy and supply chain shocks.
- Trade liberalisation alone has not transformed the economy. While free trade agreements have improved market access, they have not substantially diversified New Zealand’s exports or reduced dependence on commodities, shipping and a small number of overseas markets.
- A resilient economy requires more than trade agreements. Building resilience also depends on investing in domestic capability, including skills, infrastructure, innovation and processing capacity, alongside stronger international relationships.
- Efficiency should not come at the expense of resilience. Backup capacity, diversified supply chains and strategic reserves may be considered inefficient in stable times but will be essential in an increasingly unstable global environment.
- Trade policy should account for physical and environmental constraints. Energy availability, climate change and resource limits will increasingly shape global trade, requiring systems that can adapt to changing conditions rather than assuming continued low-cost transport and stable supply chains.
- The goal should be resilience not efficiency. Trade policy should strengthen New Zealand’s ability to withstand shocks while supporting long-term economic security, regional resilience and community wellbeing.